Although a Siberian cold front sent the mercury plunging as much
as 8oC in
northern China last week, the country can expect another warm
winter with El Nino returning, the Chinese National Meteorological
Administration announced Tuesday.
Signs of El Nino were detected when atmospheric and surface
water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean began to surge
abnormally in June and August.
The eastern part of the tropical Pacific has already entered El
Nino conditions, with sustained high temperatures, and the
phenomenon is expected to gather force in the coming months.
El Nino may bring China warmer winters, more rain in the south
and drought in the north, as well as cooler summers in the
northeast and fewer typhoons, according to Professor Ren Fuming of
the National Meteorological Center.
However, he said that it is still too early to predict with
accuracy the full impact of El Nino. Other climate factors,
including snow accumulation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the
subtropical high-pressure zone and the Indian Ocean current, might
influence the country's weather patterns.
Occurring every four or five years, El Nino is an extreme
disruption of the ocean-atmospheric system in the tropical Pacific
and can cause weather-related disasters. On its last visit, from
1997 to 1998, El Nino brought global floods, drought and storms
that caused US$20 billion in damage.
Whether El Nino pays a call or not, China has experienced 18
consecutive warm winters, attributable at least in part to global
warming resulting from greenhouse gas emissions.
The average temperature last winter was 2 to 3oC
higher than the averages of earlier decades.
Warm winters exacerbate the long-term drought that has plagued
northern China and may trigger more forest fires.
(China Daily November 3, 2004)