China's consistent family planning policy has helped economic
growth over the last three decades but tough hurdles remain in its
long-term development, reported China Daily on Monday
after an international forum on population and sustainable
development had closed in Shanghai.
China's policy helped reduce population growth by
about 300 million, almost one-fourth of the current 1.3 billion,
said Zhang Weiqing, the minister of the National Population and
Family Planning Commission.
The policy has also helped reduce pressure on
various fronts such as social and economic development and the
environment.
"Since the 1990s, China's population has maintained
a low birth rate, low mortality and low growth rate," said Zhang.
That marks a change from its previous “high birth rate, low
mortality and high growth rate."
China still has a huge population base, which means
the country's population will grow by about 10 million every year
over the next two decades to reach a peak of 1.46 billion by the
mid 2030s.
That peak will bring great employment and social
welfare challenges.
China's working age population (people aged between
15 and 64) will max out at about 940 million in 2020, estimates
suggest, making up about 65 percent of the population.
By the middle of the century, nearly one-fourth of
China's total population will be 65 years of age or older -- a
population structure that will put serious pressure on economy,
society and the environment.
Only 4.63 percent of the population aged between 25
and 64 hold a college degree or above, less than one-fourth the
proportion in Europe.
According to a 2000 census there were still 85.07
million illiterate and semiliterate people aged above 15. About 120
million people are either disabled or have a chronic illness,
creating a significant pool of unemployable people.
Since it first started its opening-up policy in the
1970s, China has reduced its poor population from 250 million to 30
million, says Zhang.
However, the figure has risen again in recent years
due to poor living conditions, illness and natural disasters. More
urban poverty has also been observed.
In 2003, there were about 23 million city dwellers
living on subsistence allowances, constituting 4.5 percent of the
total urban population.
In the 2002 census, 144 million “floating” people
were counted. Nearly 80 percent of them had migrated from the
countryside to the cities. These migrants contributed to cities’
economic and social development but brought some burdens as
well.
Take Shanghai, for example. The city has 1.27
percent of the country's population but takes up only 0.06 percent
of China's land mass. According to a recent study, Shanghai can
support a maximum population of 28 million. By 2020, the metropolis
is expected to be home to 24 million.
"To solve those problems, we must insist on our
current population policy," said Zhang.
(China Daily October 25, 2004)