China logged a staggering agriculture trade deficit in the first
half of this year, importing US$3.73 billion more than it exported,
according to the latest statistics from the Ministry of
Agriculture.
Ministry officials and academics, however, gave a lukewarm
response to the scenario, claiming the situation is a result of the
country's ever-opening market, and may not become a trend.
"It is still too early to conclude that the agriculture trade
deficit will run for the whole or the coming years," Wang Zhanlu, a
division director of the ministry's Agriculture Trade Promotion
Center, told China Daily Thursday.
The agriculture trade is subject to an array of factors,
including supply-demand relations, prices, harvests and even
climate, he said.
But the status quo probably means China may not be able to
sustain a long-standing agriculture trade surplus as it always did
before it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, said
Han Yijun, a researcher with the ministry's Research Center for
Rural Economy.
The country averaged an agriculture trade surplus of US$4.3
billion a year between 1995 and 2003, according to the center's
data.
In the first half of 2004, the country exported US$10.62 billion
of farm produce, up by 10.7 percent over the same period last year,
according to a statement from the ministry.
Imports, however, soared by 62.5 percent year on year to hit a
record US$14.35 billion, producing a US$3.73 billion deficit,
compared with a surplus of US$760 million in the first half of last
year, said the statement.
"The deficit is glaring but not surprising, given the country's
commitments following WTO entry, the implementation of tariff rate
quotas and competition in the global market," Han said, without
specifying.
Compared with the first half of last year, China imported 1.8
times as much as grain (rice, corn, wheat and barley), or 4.115
million tons, in the first half of this year, partly in response to
the straining supply-demand relations in the domestic market,
according to Han.
In particular, wheat trade made a U-turn during the
period, Han said.
Back in the first half of last year, China was a net exporter of
wheat. But it imported 2.727 million tons of wheat by the end of
this June, the latest customs statistics indicated.
Wang of the Agriculture Trade Promotion Center said grain
imports constituted just a marginal part of food consumption in
China, and the country will by no means rely on imports for food
security.
Wheat imports, for example, have been used to replenish stocks
rather than for direct consumption, according to Han Jun, a senior
researcher with the State Council Development Research Center - a
leading government think-tank.
Cheng Guoqiang, another researcher with the State Council
think-tank, also said the agriculture trade deficit, largely a
result of a drastic increase in imports of grain, edible oil and
cotton, is mostly within the rational range.
What Cheng reckoned as "unexpected" was the part of the deficit
contributed by trade in animal products.
China's animal products have been long regarded as advantageous
in terms of export, Cheng said.
But between January and June, China exported US$1.37 billion
worth of animal products and imported US$2 billion, creating a
deficit of US$630 million, the customs statistics indicated.
With the bird flu epidemic that occurred earlier this year, the
ever-growing technical barriers imposed on Chinese agricultural
products have set back and upset Chinese exports, Cheng said
improving hygiene and quality standards in animal products will be
key to trade expansion.
China imported most agricultural products from North America in
the January-June period. Sales of agricultural products to China
increased by 78.4 percent year-on-year to hit US$5.65 billion.
The United States alone exported US$4.96 billion worth of farm
produce to China, a jump of 68.1 percent compared with the same
period in 2003, according to customs statistics.
China's agricultural exports to the US were valued at US$1.12
billion, up by 26.9 percent in the half year period.
(China Daily August 20, 2004)
