Chinese agricultural experts expressed cautious optimism over
the weekend concerning substantial increases in grain output and
the income of farmers, two key targets set by the government for
this year, but stressed that more concrete measures are needed to
ensure those goals.
In the newly published book, Analysis and Forecast of
China's Rural Economy '04, analysts state that the country
could produce 455 million tons worth of cereal this year, 5.6
percent more than last year, and that per capita rural income
should grow by at least 5 percent minus inflation, 0.7 percentage
points higher than in 2003.
They also predicted that China would substantially increase
wheat imports this year owing to insufficient domestic production,
while slashing its exports of soybeans.
Total foreign trade volume of agricultural goods should undergo
another surge, but trade surpluses in the sector would be cut even
further, or even end in a deficit. Surpluses stood at US$2.5
billion last year, down 56 percent from 2002.
The book, the 12th of an annual series since 1993, was jointly
compiled by the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences and the General Organization of Rural
Socioeconomic Surveys of the National Bureau of
Statistics.
China produced 430.7 million tons worth of cereals last year,
down 5.8 percent from the previous year, and 15.7 percent less than
its peak output in 1996. The continuing slide in grain production,
coupled with sluggish growth in the income of farmers, has sounded
alarms for high-ranking officials, prompting them to implement a
package of measures earlier this year to reverse the trend.
At the annual session of the National People's Congress in
March, Premier Wen Jiabao said agricultural and rural work topped
the agenda of the central government.
"Heavy government input and drastic hikes of grain prices on the
market have combined to benefit farmers directly, and enhance their
enthusiasm for growing grain," said Li Bingkun, a senior researcher
with the State Council Research Office.
He cited the expansion of harvest areas and increasing supplies
of agricultural materials as proof for his assumption.
During the first quarter of the year, rural residents earned 834
yuan (US$100) per person, a year-on-year increase of 9.2 percent
after inflation and 1.7 percentage points higher than the same
period last year, according to the National Bureau of
Statistics.
Li said that further price rises are necessary to lure more
farmers into grain growing. Li was echoed by Tang Renjian, a
researcher with the Financial and Economic Leading Group of the
Central Party Committees, who said rising prices should send strong
signals to farmers concerning their choices of crops.
(China Daily April 19, 2004)