China's economy grew by 9.1 percent in the third quarter
compared with a year ago, indicating it has shrugged off the
negative impact of the SARS outbreak.
For the first three quarters, the economy grew a year-on-year
8.5 percent to 7.91 trillion yuan (US$953 billion).
The overall economic situation is the best on record for several
years, according to Qiu Xiaohua, deputy director of the National Bureau of
Statistics.
During the January-September period, fixed asset investment rose
a year-on-year 30.5 percent to 3.44 trillion yuan (US$413.9
billion), while retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.27
trillion yuan (US$394 billion) -- a year-on-year increase of 8.6
percent.
Exports rose 32.3 percent compared with a year ago to US$307.7
billion, while foreign direct investment rose 11.9 percent to
US$40.2 billion.
The consumer price index, the key inflation gauge, rose 0.7
percent in the first nine months compared with 2002, showing
inflation was still in manageable territory.
"If there are no major unexpected fluctuations, the country's
economy is likely to grow by 8.5 percent for the whole of 2003,''
predicted Qiu.
But he admits the country's economy remains plagued by problems
and that measures are needed following rapid lending and credit
growth.
"The difficulty in raising rural incomes that has bedeviled the
economy for a long time, the relatively large unemployment pressure
and other contradictions are all still problems,'' Qiu said.
Unbalanced development between investment and consumption, urban
and rural areas and industrial output and energy have become more
pronounced, he said.
Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute,
said the government should also watch out for an overheated economy
and possible inflation, resulting from the fast growth of fixed
asset investment and exports.
"If the economy grows at more than 10 percent, it will became
overheated and inflation would loom,'' Fan said.
"If there was no SARS outbreak, the country's economy would have
grown by more than 10 percent this year.''
Zhang Liqun, a senior researcher with the State Council's
Development Research Centre, said the Chinese economy will continue
to develop rapidly in the coming several years, as market forces
have begun to play a leading role in economic development.
"No one can underestimate the country's solid development
foundation formed by reforms and opening up, the comprehensive
effects created by the country's efforts to expand domestic demand
and the central government's ability to control the overall
economy,'' he said.
Qiu said China is capable of maintaining an average annual
economic growth rate of 7 percent before 2020.
(China Daily October 18, 2003)