China's economy is still on the right track despite worries
about "overheated" growth, said an article in the China
Economic Times.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) increased 8.2 percent
year-on-year in the first half of this year, overcoming the shadow
of SARS
which plagued the economy in the spring.
While it is generally believed the economy is entering a new
boom period, some doubt the high growth rate is normal.
The worries are mainly about the surging monetary supply and
investment in real estate development, which could yield bubbles
and inflation.
Fixed-asset investment in the first half of this year soared
31.1 percent year-on-year. The balance of bank loans increased 22.9
percent, the highest growth rate since 1996.
Growth in these areas is basically in line with the demand, and
there are no signs showing the economy has been "overheated," said
the article.
The article attributed the current boom to the government's
sound macro-economic policies and restructuring efforts, which led
to the maturity of some "propellant" industries such as real
estate, information technology and car manufacturing.
Although SARS has curbed employment and farmers' income growth,
its impact on the overall economy is limited.
China's economy has long been haunted by a deflation tendency
since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Thanks to the government's line of tapping domestic potential,
featuring a proactive fiscal policy and a stable monetary policy,
the GDP growth was maintained at 7 to 8 percent on average each
year.
The economic restructuring has borne fruit and the economy is
about to see a new phase of rapid growth, said the article.
However, attention should be paid to over-investment in some
places and industries, the article warned.
After the reelection of local legislative and government organs
earlier this year, many new officials have taken office, ambitious
to leave their mark on local economies.
In a bid to court outside investment, some local governments
have planned land developments for so-called high-tech zones or
industrial parks.
The zeal of local officials for new zones may result in
overlapping projects, as many places are doing the same thing.
Should these new zones fail to attract enough investors, the land
and money used for preliminary development, including bank loans,
will be wasted, the article said.
The growth of the steel industry also needs to be closely
watched, said the article.
Investment in the industry rocketed by 153.7 percent
year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. But the newly
opened steel plants are mostly small-sized and produce medium- and
low-end products.
The fever in steel and other industries, as well as the
construction of new high-tech zones, contributed to a 20.8 percent
surge of the monetary supply in the first half this year.
However, the current boom is not likely to trigger inflation in
the near term, the article said, on the grounds that consumption
has yet to improve.
Private consumption dropped 0.6 percent in the first half of
this year, despite robust growth in fixed-asset investment.
The consumer price index recovers slower than the price of
industrial elements. Locked in worldwide deflation, there is not
much room for the rise of domestic prices.
The current economic situation cannot be rashly portrayed as
"overheated" and any adjustment of investment and monetary policies
should be moderate and consistent, the article said.
(China Daily August 9, 2003)