An unprecedented daily disaster forecast beginning on June 1 will
better protect lives and property by predicting when a variety of
geological calamities such as landslides and land subsidence occur.
"Last month the flood season started in most Chinese regions, and
will last till the end of September, and thus begins a period
especially prone to devastating geological disasters," said Shou
Jiahua, vice-minister of land and resources.
The ministry and the State Meteorological Administration jointly
yesterday announced the launch of the geological disaster forecast,
which will form an integral part of the daily Weather Forecast on
China Central Television Station (CCTV) between May 1 and September
31.
Since the forecasting mechanism has only just been completed, this
year's forecast will begin next month, later than will be the case
in coming years.
"Some tragedies have occurred this year in areas already hit by
heavy and persistent rain, typical of the flood season," said Shou.
The most recent of which was a landslide tragedy in Central China's
Jiangxi Province, which claimed the lives of over 20 workers.
As
concentrations of torrential rain during the flood season is the
main cause of a number of geological disasters, in April the
ministry began to co-ordinate with the meteorological
administration to develop an effective warning mechanism for
geological disasters.
Based on the rainfall records of various regions, a team of experts
from the two bodies has divided the country into 28 areas and
developed a mathematical model based on which daily warnings of
geological disasters for various regions can be given.
"Our several trials during the middle of this month have all proved
satisfactory," said Li Huang, vice-director of the administration.
Li added: "We are confident the forecasting can greatly help save
losses from geological disasters."
Official statistics reveal that such disasters, excluding
earthquakes, have claimed the lives of over 1,000 people and cost
more than 10 billion yuan (US$1.2 billion) each year in the past
few years, with over 90 per cent of losses occurring in the flood
season.
Jiang Jianjun, director of the Department of Geological Environment
under the ministry, said the new forecasting should have another
significant impact apart from alerting those affected local
governments.
"By taking advantage of the powerful influence of CCTV, the new
forecasting will greatly enhance people's awareness of the threat
from geological disasters in general," he said.
Jiang said it was "ridiculous" for a large proportion of society to
remain in ignorance in respect of such events, when such disasters
are responsible for exacting the heaviest toll of the various
natural disasters which strike the country.
"Moreover, over half of the geological disasters are caused by
improper human activity and about 80 per cent of those who die in
the accidents might have lived if they had taken special care in
the regard," he said.
Jiang cited the fatal landslide in Southwest China's Guizhou
Province, which occurred earlier this month, saying the 35 workers
would not have perished if they had had a general knowledge of the
potential hazards posed by geological disasters, in that instance
following a week of rain they placed themselves against an unsound
mountain slope.
(China Daily May 30, 2003)