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An unprecedented daily disaster forecast beginning on June 1 will better protect lives and property by predicting when a variety of geological calamities such as landslides and land subsidence will occur.

"Last month the flood season started in most Chinese regions, and will last till the end of September, and thus begins a period especially prone to devastating geological disasters," said Shou Jiahua, vice-minister of land and resources.

The ministry and the State Meteorological Administration jointly yesterday announced the launch of the geological disaster forecast, which will form an integral part of the daily Weather Forecast on China Central Television Station (CCTV) between May 1 and September 31.

Since the forecasting mechanism has only just been completed, this year's forecast will begin next month, later than will be the case in coming years.

"Some tragedies have occurred this year in areas already hit by heavy and persistent rain, typical of the flood season," said Shou. The most recent of which was a landslide tragedy in Central China's Jiangxi Province, which claimed the lives of over 20 workers.

As concentrations of torrential rain during the flood season is the main cause of a number of geological disasters, in April the ministry began to co-ordinate with the meteorological administration to develop an effective warning mechanism for geological disasters.

Based on the rainfall records of various regions, a team of experts from the two bodies has divided the country into 28 areas and developed a mathematical model based on which daily warnings of geological disasters for various regions can be given.

"Our several trials during the middle of this month have all proved satisfactory," said Li Huang, vice-director of the administration. Li added: "We are confident the forecasting can greatly help save losses from geological disasters."

Official statistics reveal that such disasters, excluding earthquakes, have claimed the lives of over 1,000 people and cost more than 10 billion yuan (US$1.2 billion) each year in the past few years, with over 90 per cent of losses occurring in the flood season.

Jiang Jianjun, director of the Department of Geological Environment under the ministry, said the new forecasting should have another significant impact apart from alerting those affected local governments.

"By taking advantage of the powerful influence of CCTV, the new forecasting will greatly enhance people's awareness of the threat from geological disasters in general," he said.

Jiang said it was "ridiculous" for a large proportion of society to remain in ignorance in respect of such events, when such disasters are responsible for exacting the heaviest toll of the various natural disasters which strike the country.

"Moreover, over half of the geological disasters are caused by improper human activity and about 80 percent of those who die in the accidents might have lived if they had taken special care in the regard," he said.

Jiang cited the fatal landslide in Southwest China's Guizhou Province, which occurred earlier this month, saying the 35 workers would not have perished if they had had a general knowledge of the potential hazards posed by geological disasters, in that instance following a week of rain they placed themselves against an unsound mountain slope.

(China Daily May 30, 2003)