China turned around its trade deficit for the first quarter and
achieved a surprising US$100 million surplus in the first four
months of this year.
China exported US$122.03 billion and imported US$121.93 billion in
January-April, up 33.5 percent and 46.8 percent respectively
year-on-year, according to the General Administration of
Customs.
Monthly imports and exports reached record highs in April at
US$34.60 billion and US$35.62 billion, it said over the
weekend.
But imports and exports for April grew at a much slower rate --
down 10.7 and 1.3 percentage points respectively -- than in March,
it said.
A
trade deficit of between US$2 billion-3 billion is expected this
year due to SARS.
The change in foreign trade fortunes, however, is not expected to
do substantial harm to the Chinese economy because the country has
a huge foreign-exchange reserve, said Gao Huiqing, a senior
researcher with the State Information Center.
Yang Danhui, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences, told China Daily: "Such times have passed and a sporadic
small trade deficit for one or two years is nothing to worry
about."
She said China's trade deficit this year could be even larger if
the country imports a lot of drugs and medical equipment to fight
SARS. But the foreign-trade situation should stay healthy if China
continues to improve the commodity structure and competitiveness of
its exports.
This year's deficit is predicted to be the largest annual trade
deficit for China since 1993, when it was US$12.2 billion.
If
SARS is eliminated within another three months, China's trade
deficit would peak at US$5 billion for the May-July period, said
Gao.
If
SARS is brought under control in July, China's exports are expected
to grow extraordinarily quickly in the latter half of the year in
compensation, bolstered by strong international demand. However,
China would still have a trade deficit of between US$2 billion-3
billion for the whole year, said Gao.
(China Daily May 12, 2003)