A senior Beijing health official said Friday that the capital city
has reached a plateau in the outbreak of severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS).
Liang Wannian, vice-director of the Beijing Municipal Health
Bureau, told a regular press conference in the city, "A rising
trend of the epidemic has been effectively contained."
He
said the outbreak will decline in the future but he could not
predict when.
Beijing has witnessed sharp increases in the number of new SARS
patients since April 21, around 100 per day.
"Judging from the experience of Hong Kong and Guangdong, such a
'plateau' of cases should decline after 16 to 20 days," said
Liang.
Liang, also an epidemiology expert, said that the premise is that
the virus that hit Beijing is the same type as that in the special
administrative region and the southern province and that no other
issue was involved.
It
is not yet known whether there are healthy virus carriers and virus
carriers in the incubation period in Beijing, nor is it known if
the epidemic can be transmitted through the alimentary canal, said
Liang.
He
added that, as time goes by, group immunity is expected to develop
among people, "thus forming an immunity shield for the
vulnerable."
The official emphasized that the key factor in fighting SARS now is
to cut off any sources and routes of infection and strengthen the
protection of vulnerable people.
Liang said he is confident that the epidemic in Beijing will be
under control in the "near future" if the measures in place are
strictly enforced.
At
Friday's press conference, Cai Fuchao, a member of the Standing
Committee of Beijing's Communist Party of China Municipal
Committee, did not give a definite answer as to whether the
national university entrance examination will be postponed due to
the spread of SARS.
"I
believe the national education authorities will make decisions
after careful and prudent research in accordance with the epidemic
situation," he said.
The examination has been held in early July in previous years but
was due to shift to June for the first time this year.
The Ministry of Education last month announced a postponement of
the postgraduate examination for master's degrees.
Cai said 39 out of some 670,000 college students in Beijing had
contracted SARS. He admitted that some students had left for their
hometowns but denied there was an exodus. He said the central
government had later ordered that no students should leave
Beijing.
He
reaffirmed that the authorities would not seal off the city. He
admitted that some roads leading to neighboring provinces had been
cut off by some local people but said all roads are now open to
normal traffic and there are no problems with logistics supplies
into the city.
He
called on Beijing residents not to go to neighboring provinces or
cities during the May holiday.
"This is a responsible way to protect your own health as well as
the safety of neighboring provinces," Cai said.
He
also said he has not been informed of any construction site that
had stopped work due to a shortage of building materials.
"Since transportation into Beijing is smooth now, I guess that will
not occur," he said.
Cai added, "We have advised that construction not stop as most of
the sites are open. Thus the infection rate will be very low."
Various measures have been adopted on Beijing's construction sites
to guarantee the health of workers, particularly migrant workers,
according to Cai.
It
was announced Friday that, as of the end of April, there were no
confirmed SARS patients in rural Beijing.
(China Daily May 3, 2003)