China's financial analysts have expressed confidence that this year
could prove to be a new beginning for the country's struggling
futures industry.
Signs have emerged that the much-awaited turnaround is already
under way. A couple of major contracts including soybean and rubber
soared on January 2, the first trading day of this year.
This could herald a good trading year, according to analysts.
Turnover already doubled last year to 3.9 trillion yuan (US$470
billion) ending December 27 from that in 2000.
There was a general recovery in China's futures markets last year,
said Ye Chunhe, deputy director of the China Securities Regulatory
Commission's (CSRC) Futures Department.
Ye
said his commission would promote innovations this year in product
development, technology and system building to further accelerate
the market's healthy development. "In terms of products, (we are
going to) make full preparations for new products like cotton and
corn futures, and launch them at a proper time," he said.
Sources said the Dalian Commodity Exchange in Northeast China's
Liaoning Province has submitted a report to the authorities on
relaunching corn futures contracts. Other futures products,
including oil and Treasury bonds, are also being studied.
On
January 7, six major cotton and sugar traders put together China's
first cotton futures company in Wuhan in Central China's Hubei
Province, paving the way for the trading of the anticipated new
product.
The government banned many futures contracts in a major industry
consolidation in the 1990s after overspeculation and irregularities
led to a spate of damaging scandals. The number of brokerages
shrank from a peak of almost 1,000 to just 180, while only three
exchanges of the original 50 survived.
The industry managed to just stay in the black last year, but
incurred a total loss of more than 60 million yuan (US$7.2 million)
in the first three quarters of 2002.
But analysts are expecting a boom in the industry after China's
2001 entry into the World Trade Organization. The industry is
lagging far behind other financial sectors, but it is pivotal in
curbing increasing trade risks.
"The development of China's futures industry should be looked at
from a strategic point of view," said Ma Wensheng, president of
CIFCO (Shenzhen), a major domestic futures brokerage.
The leading role of foreign markets in the industry has given host
countries a major influence over the prices of the world's major
commodities, some of which are of strategic significance to China,
he said.
Tian Yuan, director of the China Futures Association said Chinese
regulators have realized the crucial importance of the industry and
are likely to amend a regulation governing futures trading this
year.
Insiders said the amendment, among other changes, will allow
China's 80 futures brokerages to conduct proprietary trading, asset
management and provide consulting services, a move they have
desired for years.
(China Daily January 28, 2003)