Speaking of China's economic situation this year, scholars and
experts almost uttered unanimously in one breath "unexpected good".
The continuous rising of indexes in export, investment, consumption
and other aspects have provided strong support for the expected 8
percent economic growth.
Macro-economy situation
This year's economy is to grow by about 7 percent, said Zeng
Peiyan, Minister in Charge of the State Development Planning
Commission, in his "Report on the Implementation of the 2001 Plan
for National Economic and Social Development and on the Draft 2002
Plan for Nation's Economic and Social Development" delivered at the
Fifth Session of the Ninth National People's Congress on March 6,
2002.
But viewing from the current situation, the whole-year GDP growth
is likely to be at 8 percent. More important, the whole economic
situation didn't display the trend of "first grow fast and then
slow down" as estimated at the year beginning. On the contrary, it
ran higher and higher with the growth rate registered at 7.6, 8.0,
8.1 percent respectively for the last three quarters, and estimated
to be between 8.1 and 8.3 percent for the fourth quarter. The
economic aggregate this year is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan,
a record in history which marks a new level of comprehensive
national strength. Besides, we began to push forward economic
development by both government policies and market operation,
instead of only by the former as in the past.
Foreign trade surplus
No
precise predictions were made on the total volume of import and
export at year beginning by related departments considering various
elements. However, under global economic depression China achieved
the best foreign trade development, foreign trade and economic
cooperation minister Shi Guangsheng said recently.
In
the first year of WTO entry, we achieved a comparatively stable and
predicable international trade environment, with an unexpected
export growth rate of 9.9 percent registered for the first quarter.
In April the monthly export worth surpassed 50 billion US dollars
for the first time, and the following months also saw new records
over the same period in history, in September the figure reached
31.9 billion US dollars. It is estimated that this year's
import/export volume may surpass 600 billion dollars, and the
country may leap from sixth to fifth place in world trade
ranks.
The surprising rapid trade growth can be attributed to two
important reasons. First, the global economy still in slow growth
and market demand is basically better than expected. Secondly, with
accelerated foreign trade system reforms, more enterprises got
permit for export business, and the export policies were also
improved.
Investment demand
At
the year beginning the government put forward the goal of 10
percent growth of total investment in fixed assets. But with the
early publication of treasury bond plans and arrival of fund,
together with active non-governmental investment, the total
investment rose rapidly with the January-October growth rate
standing at 24.1 percent, and that from January to November
expected to be over 20 percent.
Foreign capital also flew in at a great speed and in remarkable
scale, expert said. In the last ten months China gave permission to
establishment of 27,630 foreign-funded enterprises, up 34.5
percent, with a contract investment of about 75 billion US dollars,
35.9 percent higher, and a realized investment of 44.7 billion
dollars, 20.1 percent higher. The whole-year realized foreign
capital is to go beyond 53 or 54 billion dollars and China is
likely to become for the first time the world biggest country in
attracting foreign direct investment. According to world investment
report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,
China has taken the first place for nine successive years in
foreign investment attraction among developing countries and
regions.
Industrial production
This year's industrial production witnessed high-speed output
increasing, with the growth rates of the last three quarters
standing at 10.9, 11.7 and 12.2 percent respectively. By the end of
November the nation completed a total industrial added value of
2826.6 billion yuan, 12.4 percent up and 2.5 percent higher than
the whole previous year. A total profit of 437.4 billion yuan was
realized from January to October, up 16.3 percent.
With more and more support from financial institutions, the growth
of industrial investment was apparently sped up. Energy production
such as coal, power and crude oil remained stable and heavy
industry picked up quickly. The hi-tech focused electronic and
medical industries experienced fast development and electronic
communication and transportation equipment manufacturing as well as
chemical industry have become pillar industries to help lift up
industrial growth. Meanwhile, expanded communication equipment
export also contributed to the whole industrial growth.
Consumption
The consumption field saw new growing points as on housing, tourism
and car, especially the last item, which has kept a 50 percent
growth rate and nearly 70 percent purchase made by private
buyers.
While housing consumption increased by over 30 percent, we saw more
than 90 percent commercial houses bought by individuals, along with
the booming of housing loans.
Electronic products such as mobile phone, microcomputer, color TV
and DVD entered common households at a faster pace. Communication
devices saw over 62 percent sales growth in the last 3 quarters and
telephone users exceeded 400 million by the end of October.
WTO impact
Thanks to full preparedness and proper responding measures, the WTO
didn't bring catastrophic impact on some sensitive departments. The
automobile industry got unprecedented improvement in both scale and
performance with accelerated structural adjustment. The service
trade is being opened up on timetable. Adjustment of agricultural
structure saw remarkable progress and the January-October trade
surplus was equal to that of the whole previous year.
With the further recovery of global economy, continuous
implementation of pro-active fiscal and stable monetary policies
and opening wider, it can be predicted that the economic indexes
are going to remain at a certain level with the growth rate, say
assuredly possible, to be held over 7 percent next year.
(People's Daily December 13, 2002)