China is expected to become the fifth largest drug market in the world by 2010, according to predictions by Chinese and foreign pharmaceutical experts.

China currently ranked seventh in the world in terms of medicines consumption with earnings from pharmaceutical sales topping US$6.8 billion in 2000, said Douglas Cheung, executive manager of Merck Shart & Dohme (China Ltd.) (MSD), at the fourth Asia Pacific Pharmaceuticals Round Table closed recently in Shanghai.

Though far below the United States' figure of 150 billion dollars, the top global pharmaceuticals market, and Japan at 58 billion dollars, the second biggest market, China's superiority would turn potential into fact, he said.

The prediction was based on three factors, he said. Firstly, the number of people in China aged 65 or above would constitute 16 percent of its total population by 2020. Secondly, the birth rate had dropped sharply. Thirdly, life expectancy in China had climbed to 70 years, roughly similar to the United States.

As a result, China's medicines market would grow at an annual rate of 6-8 percent in the next few years. With its aging population, the demand for a range of drugs would grow every year.

He expected that earnings from medicines sales in China would rise to US$14 billion by 2005 and to 24 billion dollars by2010.

Peter Scheuer, executive director of the Foreign Research-Based Pharmaceutical Industry Association, said the expansion in China's medicines market was good news for overseas pharmaceutical companies. Since China joined the World Trade Organization last year, it had provided a transparent policy and improved property rights protection. The overseas companies would have a good opportunity to gain a greater share of the Chinese market.

(Xinhua News Agency November 17, 2002)