Chinese experts warn that by 2030 when China's population reaches 1.6 billion, per capita water resources will drop to 1,760 cubic meters -- perilously close to 1, 700 cubic meters, the internationally recognized benchmark for water shortages.

Li Rui, head of the Soil Conservation Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), said China's water consumption will peak by 2030 and if no effective measures are taken, the country is likely to suffer a serious water crisis in the future.

Water resources are unevenly distributed in China, with northern parts of the country deficient in water, and southern parts rich in the essential element.

The areas south of the Yangtze River, China's longest, which account for only 36.5 percent of the country's total territory, have 80.9 percent of its total water resources. However the areas north of the Yangtze, which make up 63.5 percent of China, possess only 19.1 percent of total water resources.

Dr. Feng Hao of the Soil Conservation Institute said he believes that for some time north China has been suffering a serious water shortage.

Statistics show that the combined area of the three valleys of the Yellow, Haihe and Huaihe rivers account for 13.4 percent of the country's total territory. Arable land, population, and gross domestic product (GDP) of the three river valleys make up 39 percent, 35 percent, and 32 percent respectively of the national totals. But water resources in the three river valleys account for only 7.7 percent of the national total.

Per capita water resource in the three valleys stands at 500 cubic meters, so they are areas where the water shortage is most serious in the country.

Liu Zhenbang, a water conservationist, said that along with the worsening water crisis, many rural and urban areas north of the Yellow River have run into difficulties by relying on over exploiting underground water resources to sustain their social and economic development.

Li Rui echoes Liu's view.

"North China is now using underground water formed 10,000 years ago," said Li, warning that over exploitation of underground water has led to subsidence and cracks in the ground in some areas.

Expert also warns that China's annual water supply will remain steady at 560 billion cubic meters for the next two decades.

Dr. Feng Hao of the Water and Soil Conservation Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ruled out the possibility of any major increase in water supplies for the next 20 years.

According to Dr. Feng, apart from natural consumption, the actual volume of water resources in China is estimated at between 800 billion cubic meters and 950 billion cubic meters, and groundwater reserves are estimated at about 130 billion cubic meters. But the country so far has extracted 103 billion cubic meters of groundwater.

In northern and northwestern China, where water resources are deficient and groundwater reserves over exploited, an estimated average of 8 billion cubic meters of groundwater is used annually, said Feng.

Dr. Feng believes that water supplies can be boosted through mainly relying on water storage, water diversion and water-pumping projects, which all require costly investment.

"It is of short-term use relying on exploiting groundwater to increase the water supply, and recycling the used and sewage water or developing substitute water resources will still be limited by technology," Dr. Feng explained.

But relevant research statistics available show that the volume of China's annual water supply will rise to 664 billion cubic meters and 750 billion cubic meters by 2030 and 2050, respectively.

China has targeted water conservancy projects since October 1949 when new China was founded and now has the capacity to supply 560 billion cubic meters of water annually.

In the past 50-odd years, it has built and reinforced 250,000 km of embankments, and constructed some 80,000 reservoirs across the country.

Water consumption volume increased from approximately 100 billion cubic meters from 1949 to 556.6 billion cubic meters in 1997. The acreage of irrigated land rose from 16 million hectares to 53 million hectares, and per-capita water consumption also leapt from less than 200 cubic meters to 458 cubic meters.

( June 7, 2002)