At the end of each year, the Sociology Institute of the
Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences publishes a review of the social/economic
development in the country during the previous year and makes
forecasts for the coming year. The most recent
Analysis and
Forecast of Social Development in China sees the following
seven trends for China in 2002:
The 16th CPC Congress Will Be Especially Significant
The Communist Party of China (CPC) will convene its 16th national
congress during the latter half of 2002 -- the ninth national
congress of the CPC since it became the ruling party in China in
1949 and the first meeting of the CPC in the 21st century. As
always, the public expects much of a meeting that outlines
guidelines for social and economic undertakings for the foreseeable
future.
The 16th Communist Party of China Congress is expected to emphasize
theoretical innovation, improve Party style, and reform related
systems and norms of the Party. Such reforms will continue those
begun in the mid-late 1980s, but they will be implemented in a more
systematic and effective way, thanks to experience gained over the
past dozen years. According to Analysis and Forecast of Social
Development in China, the Communist Party of China's positive
response to tremendous social and economic changes in the country
will lead to even more extensive changes in China's political,
social and economic lives.
Economic Growth Will Support Social Development
The Chinese economy is expected to maintain an annual growth rate
of some 7 percent despite an unfavorable global economy and many
problems at home. Authoritative economists say that for the
immediate future in China a 7.8 percent growth rate on balance can
be expected. The central government will continue in 2002 to
stimulate domestic market demand and meanwhile pay more attention
to the interrelationship between various policies so that these
policies can be as productive as possible.
The central government also will put high on its agenda economic
work to avoid risks, financial and otherwise. Major policy concerns
will include the readjustment of the industrial structure,
promotion of high-tech industries and exports, and development of
agriculture. Other policies can be expected in response to a
changing economy.
Public and Official Morality Will Be a Major Area of
Concern
In
September and October of 2001, the Party Central Committee issued
two important documents concerning improvement of the ruling
party's work style and the establishment of a citizens' code of
conduct. China's media gave wide coverage to the significance of
these two documents, laying a solid foundation for their
implementation in 2002 and following years. In regard to the ruling
party's work style, the focus will be on improvements in the
Party's system through strengthening ideological education, aiming
at stronger ties between the ruling party and the masses and
addressing any negative social and political effects caused by the
misconduct of some Party officials.
To the Public, Social Stability and a Higher Living Standard
Will Be Foremost
Many surveys have shown that most Chinese citizens put a high
value, as usual, on expectations of stability, including stable
career, stable income, and stable living environment. Of course,
the public also expects stability in the nation's politics, economy
and policies.
As
urban residents are under increasingly heavy pressure to spend much
of their income on support for the elderly, medicine and children's
education, according to investigations by several organizations, an
important trend next year will be the public's anticipation of a
higher income to ward off these mounting pressures in life.
In
2002, the disposable income of urban residents is expected to
increase at a rate of 5.8 percent; the per capita net income of
rural residents by 3.1 percent. This means a declining income
growth rate for urban residents and a very slow growth rate for
rural residents.
A
survey of residents in 10 cities conducted by China Central TV
Station and the National Bureau of Statistics in 2001 cited medical
reform, social security and unemployment as the top three concerns:
All directly associated with the mounting pressures cited above
which -- because of various historical and realistic reasons --
will be difficult to remove at this time. Naturally, the majority
place hope on an increase of their income, which will become an
important criterion on which the public will judge related
government policies.
In Various Fields, Reforms Will Go Deeper
Structural reform in 2002 can be expected to be continued in a
positive but prudent way by the government through coordinating
various reform measures in different fields to try to eliminate any
negative side-effects of some the reform moves.
Reform of the social security system, which was launched late, is
undergoing a very difficult process. However, the government will
give social security priority in 2002 with attempts to improve
various specific measures. Various local governments can expect to
receive greater powers of decision. Some coastal provinces have
been experimenting on a new system of guaranteeing rural residents
a minimum-cost-of-living standard while some relatively
underdeveloped regions still have difficulties in implementing the
existing system. The central government will give its attention to
coordinating the overall picture while encouraging local
innovation. The policies guiding reforms of pension, unemployment,
medical and charity systems gradually have been established, yet
problems arise as the policies are implemented, such as shortage of
funds and friction from the transition from the old system to the
new one. But it is expected that the government will respond in a
positive way to these problems with a significant breakthrough in
reforming this wide-reaching sector.
Reform of the state-owned enterprises will become even more
pressing in the new year, especially with the challenges from China's entry into
the World Trade Organization. Administrative and market forces
will be the engines of reforms that the public hopes will make
government decision-making more scientific and reasonable. The
introduction of reforms to these highly monopolized industries --
civil aviation, railway, electrical power, telecommunications and
petroleum -- will depend to a great extent on government
initiative.
WTO Membership Will Open the Door Wider
The year 2002 marks China's first year as an official WTO member.
All relevant laws and regulations will be upgraded to conform to
international standards and practice. Although such changes may not
be obvious in the short run, they mark the start of a new
process.
The implementation of international standards and practice will
require, first of all, that some government departments improve
their operations, thereby giving greater impetus to changes in
society. Public access to information in many areas will be
enhanced while at the same time individuals will have more choices
concerning career, place to live, travel abroad and access to legal
services. A more invigorated society is predicted for 2002.
Unemployment to Remain a Grim Issue
With the continuing of industrial restructuring and reforms of
state-owned enterprises, many workers will lose their jobs next
year. The coming few years will see the peak of the rural labor
supply in China, with the annual increased number of rural laborers
estimated at 8.57 million. At least 6 million of these people are
expected to leave their hometowns for job opportunities in the
city. In view of that many rural residents will become urbanites
thanks to the reform in some places of the urban population
registration system, laborers who cannot find a job will be
enrolled on an urban unemployed list. The registered unemployment
rate is therefore expected to go up in 2002.
(china.org.cn by Jiang Wandi, January 9, 2002)
The English version of Analysis and Forecast of Social
Development in China is not yet available. The full text in
Chinese is available on online at china.com.cn 中國社會形勢分析預(yù)測.