SCIO briefing on China's economic performance in Q1 2025

Shou Xiaoli:

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to this press conference held by the State Council Information Office (SCIO). This is a regular briefing on China's economic indicators. Today, we are pleased to have with us Mr. Sheng Laiyun, deputy commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), who will brief you on China's economic performance in the first quarter of 2025 and answer your questions.

Now, I'll give the floor to Mr. Sheng for his introduction.

Sheng Laiyun:

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. As usual, I will start by briefing you on the main economic indicators and data for the first quarter of this year, and then take your questions.

The national economy has seen a good start in the first quarter.

In the first quarter, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, localities and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and accurately applied the new development philosophy, accelerated the fostering of a new pattern of development, solidly promoted high-quality development, focused on implementing a combination of macro policies, continuously released policy effects, achieved relatively rapid growth in production and supply, accelerated the cultivation of new quality productive forces, saw continued expansion of domestic demand, maintained generally stable employment, secured a good start for the national economy, and demonstrated new and positive trends in high-quality development.

According to preliminary estimates, China's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 31.8758 trillion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 5.4% year on year at constant prices, and a 1.2% increase from the fourth quarter of last year. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 1.1713 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year on year; the value added of the secondary industry was 11.1903 trillion yuan, up 5.9%; and the value added of the tertiary industry was 19.5142 trillion yuan, up 5.3%.

First, agricultural production showed strong growth momentum, and animal husbandry production grew steadily. 

In the first quarter, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) grew by 4.0% year on year. The planting area of winter wheat remained stable and increased slightly, while overall growth was good. Spring farming and sowing progressed in an orderly manner. According to a nationwide planting intention survey, the intended planting areas for rice and corn increased. In the first quarter, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry totaled 25.4 million metric tons, up 2.0% year on year. Specifically, the outputs of pork, beef and poultry increased by 1.2%, 2.7% and 5.1%, respectively, while the output of mutton fell by 5.1%. The output of milk grew by 1.7%, while the output of poultry eggs declined by 0.1%. By the end of the first quarter, the number of pigs registered in stock stood at 417.31 million, up 2.2% year on year. In the first quarter, 194.76 million pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 0.1%.

Second, industrial production growth accelerated, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing expanding rapidly.

In the first quarter, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 6.5% year on year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage point compared to the entire previous year. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining grew by 6.2% year on year, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.1%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water grew by 1.9%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew by 10.9% year on year, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to the entire previous year; and the value added of high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.7%, accelerating by 0.8 percentage point. In terms of ownership, the value added of state holding enterprises grew by 4.2% year on year; that of share-holding enterprises increased by 7.2%, that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan grew by 4.0%; and that of private enterprises increased by 7.3%. In terms of products, the production of new energy vehicles, 3D printing equipment and industrial robots increased by 45.4%, 44.9% and 26.0% year on year, respectively. In March, the total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.7% year on year, 1.8 percentage points higher than the first two months, or up by 0.44% month on month. In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month; and the Production and Operation Expectation Index stood at 53.8%. From January to February, total profits by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 911 billion yuan, down by 0.3% year on year, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to the entire previous year.

Third, the service sector continued to show strong growth, with modern services maintaining a good development momentum.

In the first quarter, the value added of the service industry grew by 5.3% year on year, accelerating by 0.3 percentage point compared to the entire previous year. Specifically, the value added of information transmission, software and information technology services grew by 10.3%, leasing and business services increased by 10.2%, transportation, warehousing and postal services grew by 7.2%, wholesale and retail trade increased by 5.8%, and accommodation and catering services grew by 5.1%. In March, the Index of Services Production grew by 6.3% year on year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage point compared to January and February. Specifically, the production index of information transmission, software and information technology services grew by 9.9%, leasing and business services increased by 9.3%, wholesale and retail trade grew by 7.7%, and accommodation and catering services increased by 6.0%. In the first two months, the operating revenue of service enterprises above designated size grew by 8.2% year on year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage point compared to the entire previous year. In March, the Business Activity Index for Services was 50.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month; and the Business Activity Expectations Index for Services was 57.5%, rising by 0.6 percentage point. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for industries such as water transport, air transport, postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting, television, and satellite transmission services, and monetary and financial services were all in the high expansion range of 55.0% and above.

Fourth, market sales recovered, with sales of trade-in goods growing relatively rapidly.

In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.4671 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year on year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the entire previous year. In terms of different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 10.8057 trillion yuan, up 4.5% year on year; and that in rural areas totaled 1.6614 trillion yuan, increasing by 4.9%. Grouped by consumption patterns, the retail sales of goods were 11.0644 trillion yuan, up 4.6%; while catering revenue reached 1.4027 trillion yuan, growing by 4.7%. Sales of basic living goods and some upgraded products showed good growth. Retail sales in units above designated size of grain, oil and food products grew by 12.2%, daily necessities grew by 6.8%, and sports and entertainment goods grew by 25.4%. The trade-in policies for consumer goods continued to show results. Retail sales in units above designated size of communications equipment increased by 26.9%, cultural and office supplies increased by 21.7%, household appliances and audiovisual equipment increased by 19.3% and furniture increased by 18.1%. Online retail sales reached 3.6242 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 2.9948 trillion yuan, up 5.7%, accounting for 24.0% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.9% year on year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January and February, or up by 0.58% month on month. In the first quarter, the retail sales of services grew by 5.0% year on year.

Fifth, fixed-asset investment remained stable with steady growth, while investment in high-tech industries increased rapidly.

In the first quarter, fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 10.3174 trillion yuan, up 4.2% year on year, 1 percentage point faster than that of the previous year. Excluding real estate development, fixed-asset investment rose 8.3%. Specifically, infrastructure investment grew 5.8% year on year, manufacturing investment increased 9.1%, and real estate development investment fell 9.9%. The total sales area of newly built commercial buildings nationwide reached 218.69 million square meters, down 3% year on year, with the decline narrowing by 2.1 percentage points compared to January to February. Sales of newly built commercial buildings totaled 2.0798 trillion yuan, down 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage point. By sector, investment in the primary industry grew 16% year on year, investment in the secondary industry rose 11.9%, and investment in the tertiary industry edged up 0.1%. Private investment rose 0.4%. Excluding real estate development, private investment increased 6%. Investment in high-tech industries rose 6.5% year on year. Specifically, investment in information services increased 34.4%, aerospace vehicle equipment manufacturing rose 30.3%, computer and office device manufacturing grew 28.5%, and professional technical services rose 26.1%. In March, fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 0.15% from the previous month.

Sixth, goods imports and exports continued to grow, with further improvements in the trade structure.

In the first quarter, the total value of goods imports and exports was 10.3013 trillion yuan, up 1.3% year on year. Of that total, exports reached 6.1314 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, while imports totaled 4.17 trillion yuan, down 6%. Imports and exports by private enterprises grew 5.8%, accounting for 56.8% of the total trade value, up 2.4 percentage points from the same period last year. Exports of mechanical and electrical products increased 8.7%. In March, the total value of imports and exports reached 3.7663 trillion yuan, up 6% year on year. The total value of exports was 2.2515 trillion yuan, up 13.5%, while imports totaled 1.5148 trillion yuan, down 3.5%.

Seventh, consumer prices remained generally stable, while producer prices for industrial products declined.

In the first quarter, the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% year on year. By category, food, tobacco and alcohol prices fell 0.7%; clothing prices rose 1.2%; house prices increased 0.1%; prices for household goods and services fell 0.4%; transportation and communication prices declined 1.9%; education, culture and recreation prices rose 0.7%; health care prices climbed 0.3%; and prices for other goods and services increased 6%. Among food, tobacco and alcohol prices, fresh vegetable prices fell 5.9%, grain prices dropped 1.4%, fresh fruit prices edged down 0.1%, and pork prices rose 8.1%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% year on year. In March, the CPI fell 0.1% year on year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage point from the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, the index fell 0.4%.

In the first quarter, the national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products fell 2.3% year on year. In March, the index dropped 2.5% year on year and or 0.4% from the previous month. In the first quarter, purchasing prices for industrial producers fell 2.3% year on year. In March, purchasing prices dropped 2.4% year on year and 0.2% from the previous month.

Eighth, employment was generally stable, with the surveyed urban unemployment rate edging down slightly.

In the first quarter, the surveyed urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%. In March, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate for people with local household registration was 5.3%. For those with non-local household registration, the rate was 4.9%, including 5% for people with non-local agricultural household registration. The surveyed urban unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2%. The average weekly working hours for employees at enterprises nationwide was 48.5 hours. At the end of the first quarter, the total number of rural migrant workers stood at 187.95 million, up 1.1% year on year.

Ninth, personal income grew steadily, with rural residents' income rising faster than that of urban residents.

In the first quarter, per capita disposable income nationwide was 12,179 yuan, up 5.5% year on year in nominal terms and 5.6% in real terms after deducting price factors. By place of residence, urban residents’ per capita disposable income was 15,887 yuan, up 4.9% year on year in nominal terms and 5% in real terms. Rural residents' per capita disposable income was 7,003 yuan, up 6.2% in nominal terms and 6.5% in real terms. By source of income, nationwide per capita salary income grew 5.9%, net business income increased 5.7%, net property income rose 2.7%, and net transfer income was up 5.5%, all in nominal terms. Median per capita disposable income nationwide was 9,939 yuan, a nominal increase of 5% year on year.

Generally speaking, in the first quarter, as various macro policies continued to take effect, the national economy got off to a steady and positive start, maintaining a trend of recovery and improvement. The role of innovation as a driver strengthened, and the cultivation and development of new drivers accelerated. However, it should also be noted that the external environment has become more complex and severe, domestic effective demand lacks sufficient growth momentum, and the foundation for the economy's sustained recovery and growth needs to be further consolidated. Looking ahead, we must follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and strictly carry out the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. We will adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, and fully, faithfully and comprehensively apply the new development philosophy across all fronts. We will accelerate the creation of a new pattern of development and take solid steps to promote high-quality development. We must introduce more proactive and effective macro policies, expand and strengthen the domestic circulation, and fully stimulate the vitality of all types of market entities. We will also actively respond to uncertainties in the external environment to ensure steady economic progress and promote sound, sustained growth.

That concludes my briefing on the main indicators of the national economy in the first quarter of 2025. I'm now happy to answer your questions.