Chinese agriculture poised for breakthroughs in new quality productive forces

A latest report projects systemic breakthroughs in China's new quality productive forces in terms of agriculture over the next decade, with grain yield per unit area expected to increase by 7.8 percent.

The China Agricultural Outlook Report (2025-2034), released at the 2025 Agricultural Outlook Conference held at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) in Beijing on Sunday, reviewed China's agricultural market performance in 2024 and forecast production, consumption, trade and price trends for major farm products in the course of the next decade.

The report highlighted structural optimization in China's agricultural supply during 2024 -- marked by steady modernization progress and quality development. Notable achievements included enhanced supply of green and high-quality products, with 139,000 new crop germplasm resources collected, 1.07 million livestock genetic materials preserved, and 120,000 aquatic genetic materials documented.

Agricultural technology and infrastructure continued to strengthen in 2024, contributing more than 63 percent to productivity growth, the report said. High-quality crop variety coverage exceeded 96 percent, while comprehensive mechanization reached 75.4 percent. Over 5.33 million hectares of high-standard farmland were newly developed or upgraded, bringing total coverage to 66.67 million hectares.

According to the report, China's agricultural green development has progressed significantly -- with livestock waste utilization reaching 79.4 percent, crop straw utilization exceeding 88 percent, and agricultural film recycling surpassing 80 percent.

The decade-long forecast predicts fundamental improvements in rural revitalization and agricultural modernization. Grain production capacity will achieve both quantitative and qualitative enhancements, with the cultivated area stabilizing at 119 million hectares by 2034.

Supported by accelerated technological advancement and promotion of high-yield, stress-resistant crop varieties, grain yield is projected to rise 7.8 percent to 6,311 kg/ha by 2034. Corn and soybean yields are expected to reach 7,350 kg/ha and 2,775 kg/ha, respectively, the report said.

It noted that rising consumer demand for premium, healthy and diversified agricultural products aligns with China's economic growth and living standard improvements.

The report also said that agricultural trade patterns will optimize through deeper global supply chain integration -- with grain imports expected to decline to 113 million tonnes by 2034. Vegetable and fruit exports are forecast to grow annually by 2.6 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively, maintaining international competitiveness.

Organized by the Agricultural Information Institute of the CAAS, the conference emphasized enhancing comprehensive production capacity to address external uncertainties. It also emphasized advancing AI and emerging technologies to strengthen monitoring systems, reaffirming commitment to building China into an agricultural powerhouse.

The event featured high-level discussions on food security, smart agriculture development, trade coordination mechanisms, and AI-powered market monitoring, reflecting current industry focus areas.