Take your pick for the winner of the 2008 BMW Asian Open.

It’s going to be one of four men: Northern Ireland’s Darren Clarke, leading on –9, Dutchman Robert Derksen on –8, England’s Robert Dinwiddie on –7, or Taipei’s Lin Wentang on –5.

These four, all late afternoon starters, stole a march this afternoon on the rest of the field, and it would be hard to imagine what might bring about victory for one of the four men behind them on –3, including Chinese amateur Hu Mu, or the group of six on –2 in which Major winner Retief Goosen is the big name.

Not only would the four leaders have to implode in spectacular fashion, but one of the others would have to come up with the kind of score that has proved very elusive so far this week.

Things had looked very different as the mid-afternoon point. When Darren Clarke made his way up the 9th fairway he was leading the field at –5, the breeze that had made things so difficult on Thursday afternoon had started to blow, and it was beginning to look like things might be very tight for the final day.

But the breeze died down again, and the four leaders responded, serving up a feast of poultry over the last nine holes. Clarke hit three birdies, as did Derksen. Dinwiddie, with a 66 for the best round of the tournament to date – despite a double bogey on the 7th - hit five in six holes. Derksen was the only one of the three to make a bogey, on 14.

Lin Wentang will find it hard to digest his double bogey on 10, followed by a bogey on 13, but he came back with two further birdies to keep himself in the hunt.

Clarke’s birdie at the last was a fine one – a 160-yard bunker shot to eight feet, and a putt that rolled into the middle of the hole. Asked what had brought him to Shanghai, Clarke replied “Two things: this course is a fantastic golf course, and BMW always run fantastic tournaments. Thank you.”

It was surprising that the early starters did not make better use of the conditions. Although no-one started worse than –3, young Rory McIlroy, playing in the ninth pairing, was the first to come home under par with a 69 for –1.

Shortly afterwards Indian Dilipvijay Singh carded a fine 67 to take himself to –3 and back into contention for a top ten place.

Finally, in Group 20 the Swede Henrik Stenson seemed to be on a run. Starting on par he covered the outward 9 in 3 under, and at that point was only 2 strokes off the lead. But he made a real teddy bears’ picnic of the par-5 13th. First he hooked his drive into the woods. Like Hsu on the 6th earlier in the day he finished against the wall of the condominiums that line the hole and was given a free drop. As his drops rolled down a steep slope this turned into a free place, which he proceeded to knock right over the fairway to the woods on the other side. Trying to reach the green in regulation, his ball cannoned off a tree and came to rest twenty feet away, and still in the woods. He took another four to get down.

A further double-bogey on the last, where his four to get down from a greenside bunker included a missed tiddler, made it a back nine to forget for the Swede and his bag, which was left in no doubt as to his feelings on the matter.

The Chinese challenge faltered, but did not evaporate entirely. Amateur Hu Mu is now the best-placed at –3. The highlight of his round was a fantastic eagle on the par-4 17th. The tournament organisers had decided to add spice to the day by moving the tee forward on this short dogleg par-4, whose official yardage is 356.

This brought the green into reach for many of the professionals, and most of them duly obliged. Though it was hard to hold the green several made the distance and a number of birdies were posted, although Hu’s was the only eagle.

The tactic was not without risk though, as the green is surrounded by hazards, and in the pairing of McGowan and Zapata both went for the big one and ended up with bogey.

Liang Wenchong dropped one stroke, but overnight leader Zhang Lianwei dropped four. Both finished on one under. Li Chao dropped out of contention with a 75 that left him on +2.

Conditions for tomorrow are expected to be similar to today’s, and in these circumstances the winner must surely come from one of the current top four. It’s hard to see all of them having a nightmare, and nobody is going to take this course apart to catch them – it’s just too difficult.

But just in case, and to cover my blushes, I should perhaps go for an outside bet from the group at –3. They are Digvijay Singh, Hu Mu, Aussie Peter O’Malley, and France’s Michael Lorenzo-Vera.

My surprise choice would be the French Tour Rookie. Playing alongside one of the world’s leading golfers in Henrik Stenson took him to a new level of competition at this early stage of his career, and he confessed himself nervous at the prospect even before teeing off at the first. It could be seen at the end of his round that the experience of having outplayed a top golfer by three shots on a difficult course had done wonders for his confidence. He made only one birdie on the back nine but missed three good opportunities for more, and I expect him to shoot low tomorrow.

Shot of the Day:

The unfortunate Henrik Stenson’s attempts to escape the woods were entertaining as long as you weren’t at the end of his clubs, but pick either one of Hu Mu’s two shots on the 17th.

(David Ferguson for China.org.cn April 26, 2008)