|
The Chinese government's 7-percent economic growth target set
for this year with focus on "putting people first" has attained
extensive support from people in all walks of life, especially the
economic circles.
The following three leading economists try to paint a full
picture of China's economic development from their own angels:
-- The growth target can be materialized: Chen Qingtai
Chen based his analysis that the market force will give an even
stronger push to economic growth along with the transformation of
government functions; the growing confidence of entrepreneurs and
consumers in macroeconomic growth will reinforce the foundation of
microeconomic activities; in-depth economic restructuring will
create more favorable conditions; and a better international
environment for economic activities is also in sight.
"The Chinese economy will surge ahead in the wake of the growth
momentum of last year and still maintain a rapid growth this year,"
said Chen, the former deputy director of the Development Research
Center under the State Council, or the Chinese cabinet.
-- Changes are expected in prices, consumption and investment:
Qiu Xiaohua
Qiu, deputy director of China's National Statistics Bureau,
predicted the country's consumer price index would rise to some
extent, stirred up by anticipated rise in grain and cooking oil
prices after years of sluggish grain production and rising prices
at the world market.
The improving consumer environment, accelerating urbanization
process would bring about some favorable factors for the growth in
consumer demand at the domestic market, which, coupled with
expected growth in service consumption, is likely to result in a
greater contribution of demand to economic growth.
The growth of fixed asset investment, which contributed nearly
70 percent to economic growth last year, would be weakened this
year with an expected drop in bank loans and administrative
support.
-- Industry is expected to contribute less to economic growth:
Zhang Zhuoyuan
The contribution of industry to China's GDP growth reached a
record high of 63 percent last year, but the rate is expected to
drop to some 50 percent this year, said the director of institute
of industrial economy under the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences.
Zhang based his prediction on accelerated growth of agriculture
and service sector this year, which would result in a more balanced
growth of the primary, second and tertiary industries.
(Xinhua News Agency March 9, 2004)
|
